You are here
Home ›About Transition
What is Transition?
Transition - The Background
The idea of Transition was first put into practice in Kinsale (Cork, Ireland). After learning about the problem of Peak Oil, permaculture teacher Rob Hopkins developed a project for his permaculture students, challenging them with imagining how their lives would change in response to the end of cheap oil and climate change. The project was so successful the local council and community in Kinsale got fully behind the idea and they developed the first Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP). Rob Hopkins subsequently moved back home to the town of Totnes in Devon, where he produced his MSc thesis: 'Energy Descent Pathways' (which outlines the methodology for the Transition Movement) and kicked off Totnes Transition Town - the UK's first Transition initiative.
As defined on the Transition website, a Transition Initiative is a community working together to look Peak Oil and Climate Change squarely in the eye and address this BIG question:
"for all those aspects of life that this community needs in order to sustain itself and thrive, how do we significantly increase resilience (to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil) and drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate the effects of Climate Change)?"
The resulting coordinated range of projects across all these areas of life leads to a collectively designed energy descent pathway. The community also recognises two crucial points:
- that we used immense amounts of creativity, ingenuity and adaptability on the way up the energy upslope, and that there's no reason for us not to do the same on the downslope.
- if we collectively plan and act early enough there's every likelihood that we can create a way of living that's significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today.
There are already over 70 'official' Transition Initiatives in the UK, USA, Australia and New Zealand; with many more mulling over the concept. Communities close to us who have already begun moving towards planning for energy descent are Bristol, Llandeilo, Chepstow and the Forest of Dean. Abergavenny, Aberystwyth, Brecon and Lampeter are just some of the 44 towns in Wales that, like Cardiff, are embarking on the Transition journey.
What?
Cardiff as a Transition City seeks to bring the concept of Transition to Cardiff. In line with this, the aim of Cardiff Transition is to mobilise and facilitate positive community action in response to the twin challenges of climate change and resource depletion (particularly, peak oil). We hope to reduce Cardiff’s dependency on oil and its contribution to carbon emissions, by promoting sustainability and local resilience.
How?
Cardiff Transition's current priorities are: raising awareness in the Cardiff area about the issues of climate change and resource depletion, and the multitude of implications that these have for our community; working with people and groups already engaged with these issues; empowering people in the Cardiff area to respond positively to climate change and resource depletion. Cardiff Transition seeks to do this in a way that: ensures that all of our work is carried out in a way that is participative, inclusive and transparent; values everybody’s contribution equally
Why?
We do this because we believe that a world using less energy and resources will be more resilient, more abundant and more pleasurable than at present. Confronting the issues of climate change and peak oil can leave people feeling depressed, guilt-ridden and powerless - which is why we seek to encourage positive action, and to help people recognise the potential benefits that addressing these issues could result in. Furthermore, rather than feeling overwhelmed by trying to tackle these issues alone, we believe that acting as a community can be less daunting and more enjoyable.
What does Peak Oil mean?
The expression "peak oil" refers to the global peak in oil production, and occurs when the amount of oil produced worldwide reaches a peak and starts a permanent decline. That such a peak will occur is not controversial: production from oil fields follows a bell-shaped curve, with production starting off slowly, increasing rapidly to a plateau, and then entering a terminal decline. The concept of peak oil is merely an extension of this trend to regions, countries (most of which have already reached their peak) and finally the entire world. Predictions for when this peak will occur are controversial, and vary from about 1995 to 2030. The majority of predictions fall between 2003 and 2015, with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicting the global peak in 2007. Part of the reason for this variation is uncertainty in the reporting of oil discovery, especially in oil-rich Middle-Eastern countries. Political and economic factors have encouraged countries to over- or under-report their findings, and the actual numbers are closely guarded state secrets. Seeing through these outside influences is not an easy task, and is the main reason for the uncertainty in predicting the peak. The details of what ramifications the peak will have are also difficult to predict, although certain general trends seem likely. Oil use is pervasive in our society, and there are three main areas that are especially vulnerable to short supply:
Transportation
Oil’s appeal in transportation is due to its liquid state and high energy density. The liquid state makes oil easily to transport and pump, while the high energy density means it doesn’t take up much space on a vehicle. This factor is especially important in aviation: a battery powered airplane would have very little space for passengers and likely be too heavy to take off.
Food Supply
Nearly every step of our food supply chain is now dependant on fossil fuels. Natural gas is the main chemical ingredient used to make fertilizer, and while petroleum is the foundation of industrial pesticides. Both are essential in obtaining the crop yields currently expected in industrial agriculture. Once the food is grown, it must then be transported to the consumer, a process which currently involves thousands of miles of shipment by airplane and lorry.
Economy
One of the fundamentals of modern economics is a steady rate of economic growth. This growth, however, is possible because more cheap energy is available each year due to increasing oil production. When oil production begins to decrease and this steady growth cannot be counted on, the economy will be forced to change how it deals with both interest and investment. Finding solutions to these vulnerabilities is a very difficult task and it is likely that we will have to adapt to a different lifestyle. Ecology tells us that every species has a certain population that its environment has the resources to support. For humans, that stable population has been elevated over the last 100 years by our discovery of oil and how to harness the cheap energy it provides. While our access to oil declines, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the current human population, much less continue the kind of growth we’ve become accustomed to. The true problem presented by peak oil is therefore how to weather this decrease in cheap energy with a minimum of human suffering. There is no clear solution, but the first step involves raising public awareness to encourage open and honest discussion of the options available to us and the choices we will have to make. This needs to be done as quickly as possible. The longer we ignore the problem, the bigger the crisis will become.
(from: www.powerswitch.org.uk )
<fb:like></fb:like>
What is it?
Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing the world. It is not simply an environmental problem: it has profound implications for the economy and for the wellbeing of people here in Wales, and across the world.
There is international scientific consensus that climate change is happening and is a result of human activity. Urgent action is needed by business, government, communities and individuals to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change and adapt to its unavoidable consequences.
There have been periods of change in the climate in the past, but today things are changing much more quickly. This is because of a rise in emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases, collectively known as 'greenhouse gases'. The greenhouse gases act as a partial blanket that increases the amount of heat from the sun that is trapped by the atmosphere. Since the industrial revolution, concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased, reducing heat loss from the Earth, and resulting in warming of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere.
How will it affect us here in Cardiff?
It affects some of the Earth's most basic natural processes such as the weather, and this makes it difficult to predict exactly what will happen, and when. Computer models suggest that over the next few years Wales can expect:
- Higher average temperatures.
- Hotter, drier summers which will put increased pressure on our water supply and make it more difficult to keep buildings cool.
- Milder winters with less snow and more rain.
- More heavy rain and storms will mean a greater risk of flooding, which is likely to cause damage to buildings and disruption to transport and other services.
- Rising sea levels.
- The changing climate will affect the landscape and range of plants and animals that live in Wales.
Cardiff Transition Project seeks to help the city's residents take a practical and positive approach to dealing with their personal impact on climate change, and to highlight the importance of addressing climate change and peak oil together.
(from: Help Your Community Reduce its Carbon Footprint, Welsh Assembly Government)
